Bihar Assembly Election 2025
Exit Poll Results

Key Findings

  • NDA on course for a landslide: CNX Exit Poll projects a decisive NDA victory driven by the remarkable comeback of Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) which regained voter trust across Bihar after its poor performance in 2020.
  • MMY: Mahila, Migrant, and Youth defined Bihar 2025. These voter groups emerged as key factors in shaping the Bihar verdict, with women and young voters beyond the Yadav and Muslim communities driving the mandate toward the NDA.
  • Rural women reshaped the vote: Female voters, especially in rural and semi-urban regions, strongly supported the NDA, citing satisfaction with governance, welfare schemes, and the liquor prohibition policy that improved family and social stability.
  • Caste arithmetic still matters and favors NDA: While Bihar continues to vote largely along caste lines, CNX findings show that the NDA now represents the state’s broadest social coalition, bringing together OBC, EBC, SC, and upper-caste voters. This wide base has effectively made the NDA the real Mahagathbandhan in Bihar’s caste arithmetic.
  • RJD’s job promise lacked credibility: The RJD’s flagship “Har Ghar Naukri Yojna” failed to convince voters, many of whom viewed it as unrealistic and politically driven, choosing instead to reward the NDA’s record on governance and delivery.
  • Mahagathbandhan weakened by internal friction: Seat-sharing disagreements and weak on-ground coordination among RJD, INC, Left, and VIP reduced the alliance’s effectiveness in several key constituencies.
  • Jan Suraj finds a modest foothold: Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party made limited but visible gains among first-time, migrant and urban voters, pointing to an emerging political alternative in the state’s evolving landscape.

Seat Share Prediction

150 - 170

NDA

70 - 90

Mahagathbandhan

00 - 02

Jan Suraj Party

01 - 03

Others

Vote Share Prediction

45.03%

NDA

38.50%

Mahagathbandhan

08.61%

Jan Suraj Party

07.86%

Others / Independents

Visual Breakdown

Detailed Methodology

Survey Conducted by: CNX, India’s top election survey agency.

Survey Type: Face-to-face exit poll interviews conducted immediately after voting at polling booths.

Total Sample Size: 72,900 respondents, with 300 samples collected from each of the 243 Assembly constituencies across Bihar.

Sampling Method: Multi-stage stratified random sampling ensuring balanced representation of gender, age, caste, and region.

Data Collection Platform: Survey executed through the CNX Survey Platform, a globally trusted system ensuring real-time data validation and double-verification of responses.

Survey Period: Conducted during all phases of the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 polling days.

Quality Control: Each interview verified through field audit and digital monitoring.

Data Weighting: Applied to match Bihar’s demographic composition for accurate state-level projections.

Margin of Error: ±3%.

Disclaimer: Exit poll results reflect voter trends and may differ from official results announced by the Election Commission of India.

Chat with Manila

Hi! I'm Manila from team CNX. How can I help you today?

Thank you for chatting with Manila!

Your conversation has been sent to our team. We'll get back to you soon!